IMD update: AP coast braces for a second cyclone, hot on heels of Arnab

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IMD sees isolated extremely heavy rainfall likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on Monday; isolated heavy over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, and Telangana on Monday and Tuesday

By Vinson Kurian

Updated - October 31, 2026 at 04:59 PM.

Projected cyclone Murasu forecast to pass at some distance away the Chennai coast straight to the east, by midnight on Sunday. | Photo Credit: www.meteologix.com/in

Barely four days after very severe cyclone Arnab made landfall near the Narsapuram coast, Andhra Pradesh is once again facing the prospect of another cyclone to be called Murasu (the name was contributed by India) as per protocol, with a fresh weather system over the larger Bay of Bengal basin showing signs of rapid intensification.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said depression over the south-east Bay of Bengal is gathering strength and is poised to become a cyclone by Monday. The depression had evolved from Saturday morning’s well-marked low-pressure area over the south-east Bay and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Andaman Sea. It was centred about 330 km west-southwest of Sri Vijayapuram; 300 km west-northwest of Car Nicobar; 1,140 km east-southeast of Chennai; and 1,200 km south-east of Machilipatnam.

Intense rain for Coastal AP

The approaching system is expected to unleash a spell of intense rain over Andhra Pradesh. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is forecast over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on Monday, followed by thunder squalls with near-cyclonic wind speeds of 50-60 km/hr, gusting to 70 km/hr, on Tuesday. Isolated, very heavy rainfall is also likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, as well as Rayalaseema, on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The weather system is likely to have a wider footprint across the larger South Peninsula. Isolated heavy rainfall is forecast over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, and Telangana on Monday and Tuesday. Kerala and Mahe are in for four consecutive days of isolated heavy rain from Sunday. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam could also receive heavy rain on Sunday and Wednesday, while coastal Karnataka is likely to be affected on Wednesday, north interior Karnataka on Tuesday and south interior Karnataka from Tuesday for four days.

Wet spell elsewhere

Meanwhile, several active rain-bearing systems have already begun leaving their mark over other parts the rest of the country. The 24-hour period ending on Saturday morning saw heavy to very heavy rainfall over parts of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, West Bengal and Telangana. Heavy rain was also reported from the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. Chodavaram in the Anakapalli district of Coastal Andhra Pradesh recorded a phenomenal 50 cm of rainfall during the period.

Among the rainmakers affecting East and Eastcentral India was a remnant ‘low’ associated with very severe cyclonic storm Arnab located over south-east Uttar Pradesh on Saturday. Its influence, coupled with a western disturbance manifesting as a cyclonic circulation over north Haryana, helped maintain the rain-bearing conditions over the region. A follow-up western disturbance, in the form of a trough along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, was approaching North-West India.

Helpful warm waters

Further south, an upper-air circulation persisted over the south Maharashtra coast, with an associated extension reaching into the south-east Arabian Sea off the Kerala-Karnataka coast in the form of a trough. With the Bay depression expected to intensify rapidly and track towards the Andhra Pradesh coast, the South Peninsula is bracing for an unsettled start to the week.

Very warm sea-surface temperatures of 29-30°C, coupled with moderate to low vertical wind shear, are apparently helping the genesis of a projected second cyclone over the Bay. It marks an unusually brisk spell of cyclonic activity over these waters. Arnab, the first cyclone to form over the basin during the north-east monsoon season, had originated as a low-pressure area over the south-east Bay on October 23, not far from where the latest system is taking shape, and had rapidly intensified into a cyclone within four days.

Cyclone Murasu

Cyclone Murasu could follow a similarly rapid trajectory, although its eventual intensity and track will depend on how atmospheric and oceanic conditions evolve over the coming days. El Niño years have often been associated with a shift in cyclone formation towards lower latitudes, closer to the equator, corresponding to the waters south of Sri Lanka and around the southern Maldives to the west and Sumatra in Indonesia in the East.

Such systems can track towards India’s eastern seaboard, bringing Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal within their potential zone of influence. They can also intensify rapidly and move relatively quickly, as Arnab demonstrated. Murasu might exhibit similar characteristics, making the next 48 hours particularly important for tracking its development and possible approach towards the Andhra Pradesh coast. 

Published on October 31, 2026

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