Live Thread: US 2026 Midterms Election Night Live Thread

So here we are, citizens of the United States are voting to fill 33 US Senate seats, all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives, 39 governor’s mansions, and a variety of other elected positions.

Inevitably this election has become a referendum on POTUS Trump and his Trump 2.0 Regime, which has varied dramatically from his 2017-2020 tenure and even more dramatically from his 2024 campaign promises.

As NC reader Lena commented the other day, elections matter:

I’m a poor woman who has terminal cancer. I can’t walk anymore. Many days, I can’t sit up for more than a few minutes. But I voted in person this election because it does matter. I know that all too well. Life under Trump 2.0 has been hell. I voted straight Democratic because “marginally” better will still improve lives. When you are poor, you are made painfully aware of that every freaking day.

While I was being pushed in my wheelchair through the early voting place, an elderly Black man with no teeth was standing at a voting booth. He turned to look at me and we smiled and waved. We knew each other even though we had never met. We exercised our right to vote that day, a right that Blacks and women fought so hard to get. It will most likely be my last vote.

Trump and his minions want us to die but we aren’t going without a fight.

Nate Silver has an aggregate approval rating for Trump as of Election Day:

Real Clear Politics has a map of Senate projections based on their polling aggregations:

Real Clear Politics also has a map of US House races:

And Real Clear Politics has a map of Gubernatorial races as well:

Here are the poll closing times in Eastern Standard Time:

Polls close (Eastern) States 6 p.m. Indiana (most), Kentucky (eastern half) 7 p.m. Florida (most), Georgia, Indiana (rest), Kentucky (western half), New Hampshire (most towns), South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia 7:30 p.m. New Hampshire (two towns), North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia 8 p.m. Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida (western Panhandle), Illinois, Kansas (most), Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (most), Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (17 cities and towns), New Jersey, North Dakota (most), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota (eastern half), Tennessee, Texas (most) 8:30 p.m. Arkansas 9 p.m. Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas (four western counties), Louisiana, Michigan (four Upper Peninsula counties), Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (southwestern corner), South Dakota (western half), Texas (western tip), Wisconsin, Wyoming 10 p.m. Idaho (southern), Montana, Nevada, Oregon (part of Malheur County), Utah 11 p.m. California, Idaho (northern), Oregon (rest), Washington Midnight Alaska (most), Hawaii 1 a.m. Wed. Alaska (western Aleutian Islands)

Latest scheduled closing time in each area; some polling places close earlier, and voters in line at closing can still vote. Source: 270toWin; split-state details from Votebeat.

And here’s when to expect the results (based on the 2024 presidential election timings):

State First votes Half counted 90% counted Share in at midnight Florida 7:30 p.m. 7:30 p.m. 8:30 p.m. 99% Kentucky 6:30 p.m. 8:30 p.m. 10 p.m. 100% Delaware 8:30 p.m. 9 p.m. 10 p.m. 99% Oklahoma 8:30 p.m. 9:30 p.m. 10:30 p.m. 100% Tennessee 8:30 p.m. 9 p.m. 10:30 p.m. 98% Georgia 7:30 p.m. 8:30 p.m. 10:30 p.m. 98% Vermont 7:30 p.m. 9 p.m. 11 p.m. 96% Louisiana 9:30 p.m. 10:30 p.m. 11:30 p.m. 100% West Virginia 8 p.m. 9 p.m. 11:30 p.m. 96% South Carolina 7:30 p.m. 9 p.m. 11:30 p.m. 96% Ohio 8 p.m. 9:30 p.m. 11:30 p.m. 95% Alabama 9 p.m. 11 p.m. Midnight 94% Arkansas 9 p.m. 10 p.m. Midnight 94% North Carolina 8 p.m. 9:30 p.m. Midnight 92% Iowa 9:30 p.m. 11 p.m. Midnight 90% Indiana 6:30 p.m. 9 p.m. Midnight 91% New Jersey 8:30 p.m. 9:30 p.m. Midnight 90% New York 9:30 p.m. 10 p.m. Midnight 92% North Dakota 9 p.m. 11 p.m. 12:30 a.m. 90% Texas 8:30 p.m. 8:30 p.m. 12:30 a.m. 88% Rhode Island 8:30 p.m. 9 p.m. 12:30 a.m. 87% Virginia 7:30 p.m. 9 p.m. 12:30 a.m. 87% Missouri 8:30 p.m. 11 p.m. 1 a.m. 87% New Mexico 9:30 p.m. 11 p.m. 1 a.m. 81% Pennsylvania 8:30 p.m. 10:30 p.m. 1 a.m. 83% Kansas 8:30 p.m. 10 p.m. 1 a.m. 87% Illinois 8:30 p.m. 10 p.m. 1 a.m. 88% New Hampshire 7:30 p.m. 10:30 p.m. 2 a.m. 76% Minnesota 10 p.m. Midnight 2:30 a.m. 56% Wisconsin 9:30 p.m. 11 p.m. 2:30 a.m. 75% Wyoming 10 p.m. 12:30 a.m. 3:30 a.m. 47% Nebraska 9:30 p.m. 11 p.m. 3:30 a.m. 61% Massachusetts 9 p.m. 11:30 p.m. 4 a.m. 67% Michigan 8:30 p.m. 12:30 a.m. 5 a.m. 46% Idaho 11:30 p.m. 1 a.m. 5:30 a.m. 35% South Dakota 9:30 p.m. 2 a.m. 10:30 a.m. 35% Hawaii 5:30 a.m. 5:30 a.m. Not by noon Wed. (90%) 0% Montana 10:30 p.m. 4 a.m. Not by noon Wed. (90%) 14% Mississippi 9 p.m. 10:30 p.m. Not by noon Wed. (87%) 84% District of Columbia 10 p.m. 10:30 p.m. Not by noon Wed. (87%) 87% Nevada 1 a.m. 1:30 a.m. Not by noon Wed. (86%) 0% Connecticut 8:30 p.m. 12:30 a.m. Not by noon Wed. (85%) 43% Maryland 9:30 p.m. 9:30 p.m. Not by noon Wed. (82%) 80% Maine 9:30 p.m. 1 a.m. Not by noon Wed. (80%) 33% Colorado 9:30 p.m. 10 p.m. Not by noon Wed. (79%) 73% Oregon 11:30 p.m. 11:30 p.m. Not by noon Wed. (77%) 65% Alaska 1:30 a.m. 2:30 a.m. Not by noon Wed. (75%) 0% Washington 11:30 p.m. 11:30 p.m. Not by noon Wed. (67%) 66% Arizona 10:30 p.m. 10:30 p.m. Not by noon Wed. (66%) 54% Utah 12:30 a.m. 1 a.m. Not by noon Wed. (64%) 0% California 11:30 p.m. 1:30 a.m. Not by noon Wed. (62%) 49%

Times Eastern, from the 2024 general election, measured in half-hour snapshots; states listed fastest to slowest by when they reached 90% counted. Source: Associated Press 2024 vote-count data compiled by Nathaniel Rakich, Votebeat, Oct. 30th, 2026.

I’ll be back with some updates as they come in. In the meantime here are a few articles that might be of interest:

• • The Democratic Spam Trap: Operatives know their apocalyptic emails are a self-defeating mess. But they can’t stop sending them. New York MagazineInstead of getting younger, the average Democratic donor had gotten older — way older. Much of that shift, they discovered, was being driven by a small group of elderly donors who were donating over and over again, hundreds and sometimes thousands of times.And where is all the money from this small cluster of seniors — the ones who seem to really believe those urgent emails — ending up? Often not with candidates. When those panicked appeals come from actual campaigns or official party committees, the cash pays for door knockers and TV ads in swing states. But increasingly, candidates are competing for those donors against a vast ecosystem of PACs that raise millions through a barrage of breathless texts and emails, only to spend much of the haul on raising even more money.Bonica calls these outfits “spam PACs,” and he counts 145 of them; he refers to their targets as “captive donors.” By his tally, some 138,000 people have donated to spam PACs at least 100 times each; their average age is 75. Though they make up less than one percent of all Democratic donors, this tiny cohort of givers has supplied nearly half of the $1.4 billion these PACs have hauled in since 2017. It is, Bonica feels, “tried-and-true, ridiculous but effective elder exploitation.” And the problem, he claims, is getting worse. Since the 2024 election, Bonica counts 58 brand-new Democratic committees that fit his definition of a spam PAC. In 2025 alone, he found, these groups raised more from individual donors than every Democratic Senate candidate combined.
  • Mike Rogers Campaign Spokesperson Is a Registered Agent for Israel Drop Site News
  • Haley Stevens’s Betrayal Is a Fiasco for the Democratic Establishment

  Some election monitor news from X.com:

  Trump’s Justice Department announced it is sending about 1,000 “election monitors” to polling places in all 50 states

  https://t.co/wzSN8bj5yV https://t.co/PatE7kN4hi

  — philip lewis (@Phil_Lewis_) November 3, 2026

  One possible election outcome, but I wouldn’t get my hopes up:

  This is the key post-election fight that could determine the Senate leadership election. Should Democrats block funding for the war on December 11? Chris Van Hollen says yes, block it.

  — Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) November 3, 2026